Forex Outlook: A short review on Aussie

The Australian dollar moved up against the greenback with an increase of 0.3 % to 93.52 U.S. Cents. 

The expectations of the economists on the increase in the core consumer prices moved up by 2.9% in the first quarter. This is much higher than the 2.6 % gain in the previous period. 

The RBA is expecting the inflation to remain constant for the next 2 years. In a meeting on April 1, the central bank has stated that the interest rates are to be kept steady. The annual inflation expected by RBA is around 2 to 3 %. 

In a statement by Stan Shamu, a market strategist at IG Ltd. In Melbourne, revealed that the RBA shall remain fairly neutral until the prices starts hitting high. The Australian dollar received its short term support from the conditions prevailing now.

EUR/USD ends the week lower

      The main trend is up on the daily chart. The limited range is 1.3905 to 1.3789 with a retracement zone at 1.3847 to 1.3861. 

     This zone is the key protecting along with a down trending angle at 1.3855.

There was a little fallout to the downside after Thursday’s sharp sell-off. This was a force move since the market closed on the low the previous session.

     The EUR/USD corrected lower this week and is on track to close with losses, having receded  from levels above 1.3900 scored last Friday.

     The EUR/USD slowly backtracks from above 1.3900 to bottom out at 1.3789 and settle in a range over the last sessions, closing the last 3 days almost stable. Next week, the US will release a string of housing sector figures along with constant goods orders data.

EUR/USD levels to watch

    In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.3822 (Apr 18 high/100-hour SMA), 1.3863 (Apr 17 high) and 1.3882 (Apr 11 closing price). To the downside, supports are seen at 1.3796 (21-day SMA), 1.3782 (50-day SMA) and 1.3736 (Apr 8 low).

Forex Outlook: A special view on the metals

      With positive sentiment on the U.S. economy, the Gold futures slid down with a decrease in the demand for the metal. The Gold futures for June delivery hit a low of $1,293.90 an ounce coming down by 0.7 % on the Comex in New York.. 

       Data revealed an increase in the consumer confidence level with the upbeat economy. The lower jobless claims also boosted the confidence. The increase in the Philadelphia factory index depicting an increase in the regional manufacturing further fuelled the sentiments on the greenback. 

These upbeat economic data diminished gold to lower level with a decrease of 1.9 % this week. 

       On the Nymex, the palladium futures for June delivery moved up to $807.10 an ounce, making an increase of 0.6 %. On the Comex, the silver futures for May delivery moved down to $19.596 an ounce, decreasing by 0.2 %. With the labor dispute expected to come to end in South Africa, the world’s biggest producer of platinum, the metal saw a slump down.

The Loonie Trades Down, Speculating on BOC Interest Rates

       

       Speculating on the moves by the Bank of Canada, the Loonie bottomed to the lowest level in more than a week. With the central bank holding its benchmark interest rate at 1 %, the Canadian dollar stumbled down fell against its major counterparts.

      The Canadian dollar moved down 0.5 % to 1.1034 against the greenback. Against the major counterparts of US dollar, the Canadian dollar was seen to slump down lower this year. 

       The Bank of Canada has lowered the forecasts of the growth considering the change in demand from consumers to exports and business investment that are further fueled by the weaker loonie and increasing U.S. orders. 

       Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz stated in a press conference that they remain neutral and are still considering on rate cuts. Moreover, the Bank of Canada expects the Canadian dollar to remain the same in the recent trading value of around 91 U.S. cents.

Forex outlook: Dollar upbeat against its major peers

          The dollar was upbeat against most of its counterparts in expectation of the report showing a rise in retail sales last month. 

         A Bloomberg News poll taken before the release of the data by the Commerce Department today revealed that according to the median estimate of economists, the retail sales accelerated to the highest pace in the U.S. In March since September 2012. The survey also revealed that the purchases moved up by 0.9% from February. 

        With the consumer spending reckoning for about 70 % of the U.S. economy, the survey revealing a rise of 0.9% in the purchases from February will further strengthen the dollar.

In the U.S., retail sales accelerated in March to the highest pace since September 2012, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News poll before today’s Commerce Department data. Purchases probably rose 0.9 percent from February, when they advanced 0.3 percent, the survey shows. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

         Investors highly speculate on the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the 2014 Financial Markets Conference in Stone Mountain, Georgia tomorrow through a video conference. Expectations are also high about the meeting scheduled on April 16 at the Economic Club of New York.